First off, a list of donts.
DO NOT use GNOME. It's objectively horrible
DO NOT use base Debian. It has very old packages which are prone to exploits.
DO NOT use Kali Linux. It's for larpers i cannot lie.
Anyways, are you technologically able? (e.g can you install a web browser without assistance)
If no, pick macOS
Do you want a system that just works?
Use Linux mint.
Are you privacy/security oriented?
Use Qubes / TailsOS, depending on your hardware.
Are you a developer?
Use Fedora Linux.
Do you care more about customization/tinkering?
Use Arch Linux.
This is just a general guide of course, but for anyone thinking about getting a distro this should settle it.
qubes is awesome, so is kicksecure if you want a secure debian and so is artix if you're like me and hate systemd. also xfce allday everyday.
I actually like GNOME, thank you very much.
I do agree with your suggested systems though. I was using LMDE but recently gave NixOS a try for the second time and havent bounced off of it this time.
I've run Xubuntu since grad school when i decided i no longer had time to spend on customizing my system and needed something that was lightweight and just worked. I do run it compton for some nice desktop effects.
Most of my boxes are Xubuntu some i dont even bother changing the wallpaper as i have more important matters and it has almost always worked for me, except a botched dist upgrade last year that was partially my fault.
The desktop evironment matters more than the distro.
cosmic budgie xfce kde gnome mate deepin pantheon hyprland or whatever first