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Nice write-up -- useful having it all in one place. Been reading Semianalysis for the same picture: https://semianalysis.com/ . This is the part that explains why "you won’t see 2024 prices again" -- incremental DRAM wafers getting eaten by HBM, which burns ~3x the wafer-per-bit of commodity RAM: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/the-great-ai-silicon-shortage